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全要素用水效率对区域经济增长的空间溢出及门槛效应研究

作者:润色论文网  来源:www.runselw.com  发布时间:2019/9/16 11:17:53  

摘要:随着中国经济的快速增长,水资源需求与水资源供给之间的矛盾日益紧张。由于水资源对经济可持续发展的约束,除了开发多种水资源供应方式,解决用水紧张引发各种经济社会问题的另一关键途径就是不断改进用水效率,从而缓解水资源供需矛盾,这也契合经济新常态与供给侧改革,因此研究用水效率问题具有必要性和现实意义。与此同时,中国水资源目前存在着两方面的问题:第一是水资源短缺,第二是水资源总量以及用水效率地区分布不均衡。充分了解各地区用水的分布情况及空间关联性是因地制宜开展全行业节水工作的前提。那么,作为经济发展进程中不可或缺的一部分,用水效率异质性与经济增长的地区差异之间有着怎样的关联?要想解决这个问题,仅仅研究用水效率,而不从空间差异的角度考察用水效率与经济发展之间的关联是存在一定的局限的。弄清这些问题,对于解决我国未来水资源供需矛盾,实现水资源的有效利用,制定更加合理的水资源发展战略有着重要的理论和现实意义。

鉴于此,本文首先对用水效率测度及水资源与经济增长之间关系的研究文献进行回顾,其次构建非期望产出的SBM模型,并用此模型来测算我国2001-2015年各省区的全要素用水效率。再次,利用空间面板回归模型测算用水效率对经济增长的空间溢出效应,并进一步构建门槛面板回归模型检验我国用水效率与经济增长之间是否存在门槛效应,从而探究两者的确切关系。最后,根据实证分析结果,提出实现区域水资源利用与经济增长协调发展的对策建议。

研究发现:我国全要素用水效率表现出整体稳定上升但地区间不平衡的特征,并存在显著的正空间自相关,在研究期内,全局Moran’s I呈现波动性上升的趋势;空间计量模型的估计结果表明区域全要素用水效率对经济增长存在显著的空间溢出效应,即本地经济增长不仅受到本地区用水效率的影响,还会受到邻接地区的影响;此外,各区域用水效率对经济增长的影响不尽相同,却都存在门槛效应,且用水效率对经济增长的弹性随着经济发展水平的提高而提高,却随着用水效率的提高而降低。

In the process of China's rapid economicgrowth, the contradiction between increasing water demand and limited watersupply has become increasingly tense. Due to the constraints of water resourceson sustainable economic development, in addition to developing a variety ofwater supply methods, another key way to solve various economic and socialproblems caused by water use stress is to continuously improve water useefficiency, thereby alleviating the contradiction between water supply anddemand, which is also in line with the New Normal of China’s Economy andSupply-side Reform. Therefore, it is necessary and practical to study the issueof water use efficiency. Currently, there are two problems in China's waterresources. The first is the shortage of water resources and the second is theuneven distribution of water resources and water use efficiency. A goodunderstanding of the distribution of water use and spatial relevance in variousregions is a prerequisite for the implementation of water-saving work acrossthe industry. At the same time, as an indispensable part of the economic developmentprocess, what is the correlation between the heterogeneity of water useefficiency and the regional differences in economic growth? To solve thisproblem, there is a limit to studying the efficiency of water use withoutexamining the relationship between water use efficiency and economicdevelopment from the perspective of spatial differences. Making clear theseproblems is not only very important to solve future contradiction of watersupply and demand, but has significance to sustainable development anddevelopment strategy of water.

This paper first reviews the researchliterature on the measurement of water use efficiency and the relationshipbetween water resources and economic growth. Secondly, this paper constructsthe SBM model considering the desired output and the undesired output, and usesthis model to measure the total-factor water use efficiency of each province inChina from 2001 to 2015, then use the spatial panel regression model to measurethe spatial spillover of water use efficiency on economic growth. Also, thethreshold panel regression model is used to test whether there is a thresholdeffect between China's water use efficiency and economic growth, so as toexplore the exact relationship between them. Finally, based on researchedresults, some water-saving strategies based on China’s reality are put forward,in order to provide effective decision support for the formulation of waterpolicy.

The results show that: the total-factorwater use efficiency of each province in China shows overall stable rise butimbalance characteristics among regions. The spatial autocorrelation effect ofwater use efficiency is significant. During the study period, the globalMoran’s I shows a trend of rising volatility. Regression results of spatialeconometric model show that there is a significant spatial spillover effect ofwater use efficiency on economic growth between regions, indicating localeconomic growth is not only affected by local water use efficiency, but also byadjacent regions. In addition, the impact of water use efficiency on economicgrowth varies from region to region, but threshold effects exist, and theelasticity of water use efficiency to economic growth increases with theimprovement of economic development level, but decreases with the improvementof water use efficiency.

关键词:全要素用水效率;经济增长;SBM模型;空间溢出;门槛效应

total-factor water use efficiency; economicgrowth; SBM model; spatial spillover effect; threshold effect

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